Poly Copy Trading

运行中
实盘
策略执行管线 上次执行: 2026-04-29 18:45:46
1拉取排行榜 已完成
1000个钱包 · 636通过质检 396ms
→
2扫描持仓 已完成
154680条持仓 61954ms
→
3按市场聚合 已完成
97816个市场 851ms
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4买入信号 已完成
60个信号 60ms
从 Polymarket 排行榜拉取过去 7 天收益排名前 1000 的钱包地址，作为监控目标。每 24 小时刷新一次。
执行时间: 2026-04-29 17:39:43
耗时: 396ms
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遍历所有监控中的巨鲸钱包，通过 Data API 获取每个钱包的当前持仓数据，包括持仓方向、数量、均价和现价。
执行时间: 2026-04-29 18:45:45
耗时: 61954ms
共扫描 1000 个钱包， 获取 154680 条持仓， 涉及 97816 个市场
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将所有巨鲸持仓按市场分组，统计每个市场中买 YES 和买 NO 的人数，计算方向共识度和加权平均成本。
执行时间: 2026-04-29 18:45:46
耗时: 851ms
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筛选满足三个条件的市场：巨鲸人数 >= 5、共识度 >= 80%、当前价格 < 巨鲸平均成本，生成买入信号。
执行时间: 2026-04-29 18:45:46
耗时: 60ms
市场?市场标题，点击可跳转 Polymarket 查看详情 方向?持仓方向：YES = 看好发生，NO = 看好不发生 当前价?当前市场价格 巨鲸均价?持有该标的的巨鲸加权平均买入价 共识度?主导方向的巨鲸人数 / 总持仓巨鲸人数 巨鲸数?持有该标的的巨鲸数量 原因?触发信号的详细原因
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? YES 0.18000.6552 100%8 8/8 whales hold YES (consensus 100%), current price 0.1950 < avg cost 0.6552
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? YES 0.09000.1238 100%7 7/7 whales hold YES (consensus 100%), current price 0.0850 < avg cost 0.1238
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? YES 0.09000.1493 100%6 6/6 whales hold YES (consensus 100%), current price 0.0850 < avg cost 0.1493
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? YES 0.07300.1094 100%5 5/5 whales hold YES (consensus 100%), current price 0.0735 < avg cost 0.1094
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? YES 0.10000.1678 100%5 5/5 whales hold YES (consensus 100%), current price 0.0950 < avg cost 0.1678
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? YES 0.12000.1374 100%5 5/5 whales hold YES (consensus 100%), current price 0.1150 < avg cost 0.1374
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? NO 0.95600.9589 100%5 5/5 whales hold NO (consensus 100%), current price 0.9580 < avg cost 0.9589
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? YES 0.08400.2418 100%5 5/5 whales hold YES (consensus 100%), current price 0.0670 < avg cost 0.2418
Will Petr Yan fight Sean O’Malley next? YES 0.03100.2251 100%5 5/5 whales hold YES (consensus 100%), current price 0.1650 < avg cost 0.2251
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? NO 0.94000.9163 100%5 5/5 whales hold NO (consensus 100%), current price 0.8800 < avg cost 0.9163
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? NO 0.07000.3470 100%5 5/5 whales hold NO (consensus 100%), current price 0.2400 < avg cost 0.3470
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? NO 0.07000.0934 100%5 5/5 whales hold NO (consensus 100%), current price 0.0845 < avg cost 0.0934
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? YES 0.07000.1225 91%11 10/11 whales hold YES (consensus 91%), current price 0.0650 < avg cost 0.1225
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YES 0.11100.1972 89%18 16/18 whales hold YES (consensus 89%), current price 0.1105 < avg cost 0.1972
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? YES 0.61000.7100 88%17 15/17 whales hold YES (consensus 88%), current price 0.6050 < avg cost 0.7100
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? YES 0.06400.0923 88%16 14/16 whales hold YES (consensus 88%), current price 0.0645 < avg cost 0.0923
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? YES 0.06400.0822 88%8 7/8 whales hold YES (consensus 88%), current price 0.0645 < avg cost 0.0822
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? NO 0.09000.1127 86%7 6/7 whales hold NO (consensus 86%), current price 0.0850 < avg cost 0.1127
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? YES 0.07000.0721 86%7 6/7 whales hold YES (consensus 86%), current price 0.0650 < avg cost 0.0721
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? YES 0.06300.3632 86%7 6/7 whales hold YES (consensus 86%), current price 0.0625 < avg cost 0.3632
Will Trump visit China by June 30? YES 0.81000.8422 86%7 6/7 whales hold YES (consensus 86%), current price 0.8050 < avg cost 0.8422
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? NO 0.21000.4205 86%7 6/7 whales hold NO (consensus 86%), current price 0.2150 < avg cost 0.4205
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? NO 0.62000.6152 83%6 5/6 whales hold NO (consensus 83%), current price 0.6150 < avg cost 0.6152
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers NO 0.46000.4579 83%6 5/6 whales hold NO (consensus 83%), current price 0.4550 < avg cost 0.4579
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026? YES 0.19000.1961 83%6 5/6 whales hold YES (consensus 83%), current price 0.1750 < avg cost 0.1961
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? YES 0.50000.7073 83%6 5/6 whales hold YES (consensus 83%), current price 0.5050 < avg cost 0.7073
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? YES 0.08000.1762 83%6 5/6 whales hold YES (consensus 83%), current price 0.0850 < avg cost 0.1762
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? YES 0.46000.5097 83%6 5/6 whales hold YES (consensus 83%), current price 0.3600 < avg cost 0.5097
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? YES 0.08000.1194 83%6 5/6 whales hold YES (consensus 83%), current price 0.0805 < avg cost 0.1194
Will Trump visit China by May 15? YES 0.64000.6698 83%6 5/6 whales hold YES (consensus 83%), current price 0.6450 < avg cost 0.6698
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? NO 0.10000.1280 83%6 5/6 whales hold NO (consensus 83%), current price 0.0950 < avg cost 0.1280
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? NO 0.19000.4340 83%6 5/6 whales hold NO (consensus 83%), current price 0.1850 < avg cost 0.4340
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? NO 0.38000.5296 83%6 5/6 whales hold NO (consensus 83%), current price 0.3700 < avg cost 0.5296
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? NO 0.60000.6130 82%17 14/17 whales hold NO (consensus 82%), current price 0.5950 < avg cost 0.6130
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? YES 0.21000.4377 82%17 14/17 whales hold YES (consensus 82%), current price 0.2050 < avg cost 0.4377
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? NO 0.82000.8192 82%22 18/22 whales hold NO (consensus 82%), current price 0.8149 < avg cost 0.8192
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? NO 0.56000.5948 80%15 12/15 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.5649 < avg cost 0.5948
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? YES 0.05100.0566 80%10 8/10 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.0515 < avg cost 0.0566
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? YES 0.40000.4327 80%10 8/10 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.4100 < avg cost 0.4327
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? NO 0.36000.4576 80%10 8/10 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.3750 < avg cost 0.4576
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? YES 0.62900.6487 80%10 8/10 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.6210 < avg cost 0.6487
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? NO 0.26000.3112 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.2350 < avg cost 0.3112
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? YES 0.61000.6027 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.6000 < avg cost 0.6027
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? YES 0.43000.5209 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.4200 < avg cost 0.5209
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? YES 0.67000.7123 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.6650 < avg cost 0.7123
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? NO 0.83000.8767 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.7700 < avg cost 0.8767
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs ODDIK Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Group Stage NO 0.50000.5547 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.5050 < avg cost 0.5547
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? NO 0.08000.2342 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.0950 < avg cost 0.2342
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? YES 0.25000.2412 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.2400 < avg cost 0.2412
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? NO 0.50000.2324 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.1150 < avg cost 0.2324
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? YES 0.66000.6822 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.6650 < avg cost 0.6822
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? YES 0.19000.2026 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.2000 < avg cost 0.2026
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? NO 0.31000.4920 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.4500 < avg cost 0.4920
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? NO 0.05000.0744 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.0550 < avg cost 0.0744
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? YES 0.20900.2235 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.1820 < avg cost 0.2235
Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? YES 0.80200.7748 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.4780 < avg cost 0.7748
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? NO 0.79000.7741 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.7350 < avg cost 0.7741
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day? YES 0.06600.0590 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.0580 < avg cost 0.0590
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? NO 0.87000.8876 80%5 4/5 whales hold NO (consensus 80%), current price 0.8700 < avg cost 0.8876
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? YES 0.06000.0598 80%5 4/5 whales hold YES (consensus 80%), current price 0.0550 < avg cost 0.0598

监控持仓

93

卖出信号

1

监控状态

已完成

下次检查

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独立运行，每 60 秒检查一次持仓。卖出条件：巨鲸共识瓦解、市场结算。
执行时间: 2026-04-29 18:45:44
耗时: 1ms
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总资产

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浮动盈亏

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持仓市值

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持仓成本

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部署率

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持仓数

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盈/亏分布

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最大持仓

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总盈亏走势（正式）

总资产走势（正式）

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买入条件（全部满足）

  • 监控对象：Polymarket 排行榜过去 7 天 收益榜前 1000 个钱包
  • 巨鲸共识度 >= 80%
  • 持仓巨鲸数量 >= 10（按唯一钱包计数）
  • 当前价格 < 巨鲸平均成本
  • 实盘单笔金额 $1（cents-aligned，可能略 ≥）
  • 同一市场不重复买入（按链上持仓判定）

卖出条件（满足任一）

  • 止盈（买入即挂 maker GTC 限价卖单，按下方阈值）
    • 距结算 ≤ 6 小时：阈值 = 0.99（等结算）
    • 距结算 ≤ 3 天：阈值 = min(0.97, max(均价×1.6, 0.85))
    • 距结算 > 3 天：阈值 = min(0.90, max(均价×1.3, 0.60))
    • 10× 上限：所有档再夹 min(tier, 均价×10),lottery 区（avg < 0.10）才生效。
    • 买单成交后立即向 CLOB 挂 GTC 卖单(maker),买盘穿越价位即成交,链上瞬时反应。共识瓦解 / 结算时撤单走快速出货。
  • 共识瓦解 — 原始巨鲸留存率 < 50%（top bid - 2 ticks 滑点出货）
  • 市场结算 — CTF 自动赎回到 USDC，无需挂单
时间范围 至
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最少决出胜负数 排序
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巨鲸详情

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买入
卖出
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设置已保存